Welcome to my personal website!

This website contains some of my research, codes and other material. My research interests are macroeconomics, monetary economics, and time series econometrics.

My email address is:
em at elmarmertens dot com

Until recently, I have been a Principal Economist at the Federal Reserve Board and will soon be joining the monetary and economic department of the Bank for International Settlements. 

You can find me also at IDEAS, ResarchGateLinkedIn, and SSRN.

NONE of the material posted on this personal website necessarily represents the views of the Bank for International Settlements, the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee.


  • New Paper on Time-varying Uncertainty in Survey Forecasts (w/Todd Clark and Michael McCracken) We develop uncertainty measures for point forecasts from surveys such as the Survey of Professional Forecasters, Blue Chip, or the Federal Open Market Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections. At ...
    Posted Mar 28, 2017, 10:12 PM by Elmar Mertens
  • Discussion of Carvalho, Eusepi, Moench and Preston Great paper, here are my slides: pdf
    Posted Sep 28, 2016, 5:24 AM by Elmar Mertens
  • FEDS Note on Shadow Rates and the Long-run Level of the Real Rate Together with my Board colleague Ben Johannsen, we just finished a FEDS note describing the latest version of our work on estimating shadow rates from time-series models. Part of ...
    Posted May 9, 2016, 7:43 PM by Elmar Mertens
  • New publications in JMCB, REStat, and IJCB A few of my papers recently got accepted for journal publication. Notably, "Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion" has just been published online in the Journal of Money, Credit ...
    Posted May 19, 2016, 5:22 AM by Elmar Mertens
  • Time-varying Stickiness in Professional Inflation Forecasts In a new paper, co-authored with Jim Nason, we estimate a version of the Stock-Watson (SW) unobserved components (UC) model of inflation jointly with the Mankiw-Reis sticky ...
    Posted Sep 15, 2016, 5:13 PM by Elmar Mertens
Showing posts 1 - 5 of 18. View more »