Welcome to my personal website!

I am an applied macroeconomist and time-series econometrician. My work is focused on the formation of expectations, informational frictions and the dynamics of survey expectations. 

Currently, I work at the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements. From 2008-2016, I was on the research staff of the Federal Reserve Board.

You can find me also at IDEAS, GoogleScholarResarchGateLinkedIn, and SSRN.

My email address is: em at elmarmertens dot com

NONE of the material posted on this personal website necessarily represents the views of the Bank for International Settlements, the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee.


  • "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information" with Thomas Lubik and Christian Matthes This is ongoing work with Thomas A. Lubik (FRB Richmond), Christian Matthes (FRB Richmond):We study equilibrium determination in an environment where two kinds of agents have different information sets ...
    Posted Nov 20, 2017, 5:32 AM by Elmar Mertens
  • REVISED: Paper on Time-varying Uncertainty in Survey Forecasts (w/Todd Clark and Michael McCracken) We develop uncertainty measures for point forecasts from surveys such as the Survey of Professional Forecasters, Blue Chip, or the Federal Open Market Committee’s Summary of Economic Projections. At ...
    Posted Aug 28, 2017, 7:20 AM by Elmar Mertens
  • FEDS Note on Shadow Rates and the Long-run Level of the Real Rate Together with my Board colleague Ben Johannsen, we just finished a FEDS note describing the latest version of our work on estimating shadow rates from time-series models. Part of ...
    Posted Jan 15, 2018, 6:36 AM by Elmar Mertens
  • New publications in JMCB, REStat, and IJCB A few of my papers recently got accepted for journal publication. Notably, "Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion" has just been published online in the Journal of Money, Credit ...
    Posted May 19, 2016, 5:22 AM by Elmar Mertens
  • Time-varying Stickiness in Professional Inflation Forecasts In a new paper, co-authored with Jim Nason, we estimate a version of the Stock-Watson (SW) unobserved components (UC) model of inflation jointly with the Mankiw-Reis sticky ...
    Posted Dec 29, 2017, 8:06 AM by Elmar Mertens
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