Welcome to my personal website!

I am an applied macroeconomist and time-series econometrician and senior economist with the Research Centre of the Deutsche Bundesbank.  

My research is focused on the formation of expectations, informational frictions and the dynamics of survey expectations. 

You can find my work also at IDEAS, GoogleScholarResarchGateLinkedIn, SSRN, ResearcherIDORCID, and the Bundesbank.

My email address is: em at elmarmertens dot com

NONE of the material posted on this personal website necessarily represents the views of 
the Deutsche Bundesbank, the Eurosystem, the Bank for International Settlements, 
the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee.


  • Accepted in REStat: Time-varying fan charts around survey forecasts Forthcoming in the Review of Economics and Statistics , with Todd Clark (FRB Cleveland) and Michael McCracken (FRB St. Louis):We estimate uncertainty measures for point forecasts obtained from survey data ...
    Posted Feb 27, 2019, 5:10 AM by Elmar Mertens
  • REVISED WP: Shadow rates and the long-run level of the real rate Together with my former Board colleague Ben Johannsen, we revised our work on estimating the long-run level of the real rate from a time-series model with shadow rates ...
    Posted May 10, 2018, 12:02 AM by Elmar Mertens
  • Kilian and Luetkepohl: Nice Section on Kurmann and Mertens (2014) Kilian and Luetkepohl's SVAR monograph is out; a great book! A nice bit is also their description of my paper with Andre Kurmann (2014, AER) that showed how the ...
    Posted Mar 19, 2018, 11:24 PM by Elmar Mertens
  • "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information" with Thomas Lubik and Christian Matthes This is ongoing work with Thomas A. Lubik (FRB Richmond), Christian Matthes (FRB Richmond):We study equilibrium determination in an environment where two kinds of agents have different information sets ...
    Posted Jun 11, 2018, 12:17 AM by Elmar Mertens
  • REVISED: Paper on Time-varying Uncertainty in Survey Forecasts (w/Todd Clark and Michael McCracken) We estimate uncertainty measures for point forecasts obtained from survey data, pooling information embedded in observed forecast errors for different forecast horizons. To track time-varying uncertainty in the associated ...
    Posted Sep 21, 2018, 1:49 AM by Elmar Mertens
Showing posts 1 - 5 of 21. View more »